Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 7.718245 8.865474 10.103319 11.535562 13.144315 14.892709 16.933812
2026-02-08 5.930459 7.455161 9.230747 11.440499 14.105220 17.202639 21.062393
2026-02-15 4.991790 6.654664 8.688801 11.340192 14.682536 18.731782 23.981583
2026-02-22 4.340934 6.100773 8.350176 11.404366 15.406484 20.431453 27.170837
2026-03-01 3.941276 5.795799 8.256656 11.715141 16.396118 22.450030 30.798701
2026-03-08 3.446487 5.296002 7.840488 11.536352 16.694486 23.553834 33.262478
2026-03-15 2.937933 4.713430 7.243632 11.037733 16.491030 23.937506 34.739404
2026-03-22 2.737474 4.555969 7.225865 11.338040 17.395236 25.849727 38.364517
2026-03-29 2.541041 4.380898 7.160303 11.551400 18.170887 27.602276 41.829277
2026-04-05 2.297098 4.104327 6.914028 11.467400 18.491303 28.704536 44.399814
2026-04-12 2.070150 3.830840 6.646127 11.322641 18.698396 29.634505 46.741324
2026-04-19 1.900664 3.635386 6.483167 11.323819 19.117059 30.881777 49.586568
2026-04-26 1.761362 3.481613 6.380290 11.420431 19.699861 32.419356 52.963826
2026-05-03 1.604539 3.280954 6.182358 11.345145 20.000837 33.535262 55.745141
2026-05-10 1.460292 3.087324 5.978064 11.238939 20.235084 34.543289 58.382746
2026-05-17 1.357825 2.961417 5.880690 11.304963 20.750265 36.008230 61.784414
2026-05-24 1.299889 2.915649 5.921985 11.612495 21.682256 38.174154 66.376785
2026-05-31 1.180568 2.735121 5.701081 11.435388 21.770321 38.962283 68.769842
2026-06-07 1.033458 2.481446 5.321350 10.940536 21.271678 38.749396 69.505508
2026-06-14 0.994583 2.451946 5.368750 11.238545 22.187843 40.938738 74.290606
2026-06-21 0.948479 2.401973 5.371459 11.450238 22.955701 42.901484 78.760459
2026-06-28 0.874790 2.282925 5.226346 11.366893 23.177469 43.929239 81.677374
2026-07-05 0.801651 2.157096 5.056941 11.223256 23.276355 44.741049 84.245581